My 10 predictions for 2019

December 18, 2018

  1. Amazon will make a big acquisition in the fashion space. The potential target are Asos, Farfetch and Target;

  2. Italian Election in November 2019. The fragile coalition 5 Stars-Northern League will break in Spring following the pressure from the EU Balance Commission. At the new election in November, Northern League and Forza Italia will achieve majority and Matteo Salvini will be crowded Prime Minister;

  3. The Brexit Deal will pass in January 2019 and as planned in March 2019 UK will leave the EU. However economic uncertainty will put pressure on the economy and by 4Q2019 the GDP will decline vs. the previous year. House prince in London will decline by over 10% in Zone 2 and 3;

  4. The FED will reduce the interest rate from 2.5% to 2.0% to stimulate an American economy that will suffer the Muller investigation on Donald Trump. Trump will feel weak and will start to attack not just the Democratic but his own Republican Party. The Republican Party will ask him do not stand up for re-election in 2020;

  5. S&P 500 will decline by 20% in the first 6 months of 2019, but will close the year at the same level of 2018;

  6. The Venture Capital investment in blockchain technology will decline by 75% vs. the level of 2018;

  7. Uber will not IPO, but Airbnb and Lyst will do. Both Airbnbn and Lyst will use a direct listing approach (Spotify style). The vegan company Beyond Meat will execute a successful IPO;

  8. The number of early stage deals in UK will be flat compared to 2018 but the average valuation pre-money will go down by 10%-15%;

  9. China economy will growth a much slower rate than expected (4%-5%);

  10. E-sport will be elected as an Olympic Sport and will be present at the Paris Olympic in 2024.

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